2022 PCB Kev Lag Luam Sib Tw

Nrog rau kev nkag siab tob txog PCB kev lag luam thiab thev naus laus zis, PRISMARK Partners tus thawj coj ntawm Dr. Jiang Xu Gao tau tshuaj xyuas qhov kev sib tw ntawm PCB kev ua lag luam hauv xyoo 2022 los ntawm kev xav thoob ntiaj teb. Thaum Lub Rau Hli 14, nws hais lus ntawm EIPC lub rooj sib tham lub caij ntuj sov uas muaj nyob rau hauv Sweden Orebro tau mob siab rau cov neeg tuaj saib, thiab lawv xav tau cov ntaub ntawv tshiab thiab cov kev xav tshiab uas nws tau coj los. Nws tuaj yeem pom los ntawm nws cov lus hais tias 2022 yuav yog ib lub xyoo ntawm kev mloog, thiab nws zoo li tsis zoo rau PCB kev lag luam.

Hauv kev hais lus ntawm "EIPC Technology Overview Network Symposium" nyob rau lub Ob Hlis xyoo no, Dr. Jiang tau qhia tias xyoo 2021, PCB kev ua lag luam yog tus cwj pwm los ntawm kev nce nyiaj hauv cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm lub rooj ntim khoom, tab sis muaj zog thov, cov khoom siv siab, muab kev thauj mus los cuam tshuam, cov khoom lag luam cov khoom lag luam nce thiab cov nyiaj ntsuab ntws los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab PCB feem ntau. Lwm yam teeb meem uas cuam tshuam rau kev ua lag luam xyoo 2021 suav nrog kev xa khoom ntawm PCB cov khoom siv raw thiab kev txwv tsis pub muaj peev xwm, kev hloov pauv txiaj, lub sijhawm ntev ntawm kev xa cov khoom siv tseem ceeb, thiab cov khoom tsis txaus ntawm qee yam khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab lwm yam khoom siv.

Hauv kev hais lus no, nws tau tshuaj xyuas kev lag luam kev loj hlob ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022. Nws hais tias: "Kev lag luam hluav taws xob yog nyob rau hauv lub voj voog tom qab-historic tshwm sim los ntawm kev sib kis ntawm 2019, thiab kev ua lag luam tau hloov pauv, thiab tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev ua noj ua haus hauv kev lag luam. ntiaj teb." Nrog rau qhov kawg ntawm synchronization xav tau ntawm tus kheej lub khoos phis tawj, TVs, thiab game consoles, qhov xwm txheej tshwm sim Cov nyiaj faib tawm sai sai, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm 5G ntawm smartphones tsis muaj zog. "Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv" vim qhov tsis paub meej ntawm cov khoom xa khoom tau ploj mus, kev nthuav dav ntawm qhov kev thov tau ploj mus, thiab nws kuj tau nrog rau qhov kawg ntawm kev rov ua dua kev txiav txim thiab kev zom khoom ntawm cov khoom muag siab.

Kev kwv yees tam sim no yog kev loj hlob nruab nrab. Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog los txiav txim siab txog yam xws li kev nce nqi, cov paj laum siab, muaj zog Asmeskas cov nyiaj, Russia -Ukraine tsis sib haum xeeb, thiab Tuam Tshoj txoj cai tshem tawm kev tawm tsam. Dr. Jiang piav qhia txog cov teeb meem tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob:

· Cov khoom lag luam siab hauv cov saw hlau

· Kev poob qis hauv kev yuav khoom ua rau tsis muaj zog xav tau

· Kev nce nqi siab thiab cov paj laum siab

· Rigid thiab deflection PCB mov yog dhau lawm

· Kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm thaj chaw ua rau cov nqi hluav taws xob siab

· Kev thaiv kab mob sib kis ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov neeg muag khoom tsim khoom thiab kev xa khoom

· Artificial shortage thiab cov nqi hloov pauv

Nws ntseeg tias thaj chaw loj hlob muaj zog tshaj plaws yog cov khoom lag luam uas muaj lub sijhawm xa khoom ntev tshaj plaws los yog tab tom hloov pauv, xws li kev lag luam thiab kev kho mob, tsheb, kev suav thiab kev sib txuas lus, thiab lwm yam khoom siv hluav taws xob, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov khoom siv coj los siv.

Nrhiav rau pem hauv ntej mus rau kev loj hlob ntev ntawm PCB kev lag luam tus nqi thiab cov qauv khoom, nws kwv yees tias qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm ib qho kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 4.6 feem pua ​​​​ntawm 2021 ~ 2026 yuav tsum tshaj $ 100 billion hauv 2026. Ntawm lawv. Qhov tseem ceeb

Leej twg tau txais txiaj ntsig siab hauv 2021? Ntawm 30 lub tuam txhab PCB saum toj kawg nkaus hauv ntiaj teb, 16 qhov nyiaj tau los tau tshaj 10 feem pua, feem ntau yog cov tuam txhab Taiwanese hauv Suav teb. Leej twg nqis peev? Feem ntau, cov tuam txhab no tseem muaj ntau dua $ 200 lab hauv kev siv peev nyiaj.

Saib rov qab los ntawm geopolitical tiam sis nyob rau hauv 20 xyoo dhau los, Dr. Jiang tau taw qhia tias Tuam Tshoj tau dhau los ua lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm PCB, thiab Asmeskas, Europe thiab Nyiv tau dhau los ua cov khoom lag luam niche lossis cov khoom me me. Taiwan thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb tsom mus rau kev txhim kho cov thev naus laus zis siab, thiab cov tebchaws Esxias yav Qab Teb tau dhau los ua qhov chaw nqis peev zoo rau cov tuam txhab Nyij Pooj thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb. Txawm hais tias kev lag luam, kev nom kev tswv, ib puag ncig thiab nqi zog yuav hloov pauv tus qauv ntawm PCB kev lag luam dua, nws tseem yuav tsum tau saib xyuas.

Saib ntawm PCB kev lag luam hauv xyoo 2022, nws ntseeg tias nyob rau hauv BGA high-end deflection pawg thawj coj saib thiab cov txheej txheem-theem ntim thiab cov khoom thauj khoom siv-tsav tsav, lub khw nqa khoom tau nce mus tas li, thiab cov khoom tsim tawm yuav tsum nce siab txog 14 feem pua ​​​​hauv 2022. Txawm hais tias kev lag luam smartphone tsis muaj zog tuaj yeem cuam tshuam txoj kev loj hlob ntawm HDI, ntau yam tsis siv neeg siv xws li tsheb, khoos phis tawj ua haujlwm siab, kev sib txuas ceev ceev thiab kev sib txuas lus satellite yuav xav tau cov khoom HDI. Cov ntaub ntawv hauv vaj tse nrawm dua yuav xav tau ntau dua -theem qis -lossis ntau txheej PCB. Kev ua lag luam tsheb yuav xav tau kev txhim khu kev ntseeg siab dua tam sim no thiab kub kub dissipation PCB, thiab nruj PCB xaj rau cov neeg siv khoom thiab cov ntawv thov PC yuav raug txo. Vim qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm 2021, qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022 ua tau zoo heev.

Kev lag luam PCB kuj tsis muaj zog nyob rau lub quarter thib ob, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv Asia, yog vim li cas hauv qab no:

· Shanghai blockade

Qhov cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam tsheb tsim khoom

Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm Russia thiab Ukraine qhov tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm European kev tsim khoom

Qhov kev thov rau tus kheej lub khoos phis tawj thiab cov duab kos sai sai txo

· Cov neeg siv khoom xav tau tsawg zuj zus, kev lag luam xov tooj ntawm tes poob qis

Tam sim no, qhov kev pom zoo ntawm peb lub hlis twg yog tias tseem muaj qee qhov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom muag uas yuav tsum tau daws. Kev sib tw yuav ua rau tus nqi poob qis. Qhov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom siv ntau dhau tseem tsis paub meej. Tej zaum qhov rov qab yuav tshwm sim hauv lub quarter thib plaub? Nyob rau hauv Dr. Jiang txoj kev xav, lub zeem muag ntawm kev txhim kho yav tom ntej tseem tsis tau meej meej, thiab nws nyuaj rau kev kwv yees kom raug. Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev ua lag luam yuav "paj lossis nce me ntsis" hauv 2022, tab sis lub rooj ntim khoom yuav muaj zog.

Yog li ntawd, nws tsis zoo li tshwj xeeb yog tus phooj ywg rau PCB kev lag luam hauv 2022.

Qhov xwm txheej ntawm tus neeg muag khoom yog dab tsi?

Los ntawm kev xav ntawm PCB cov neeg muag khoom thiab cov neeg muag khoom khoom, hauv 2021, cov khoom siv tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau los ntawm cov peev txheej ntawm cov tuam txhab PCB loj, thiab ntau cov khoom siv siab kawg tuaj ntawm Tebchaws Europe. Dr. Jiang ceeb toom rau European PCB cov tuam txhab: "Kev sib tw yog qhov hnyav dua, Tuam Tshoj tab tom loj hlob, nthuav nws txoj kev lag luam, thiab txuas ntxiv txhim kho nws txoj kev muaj peev xwm."

Rau cov neeg muab khoom siv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov txheej txheem siab phaj, 2021 yog xyoo zoo. Tom qab tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw tau nce, tus nqi tau ua tiav rau cov neeg siv khoom, thaum tswj cov nyiaj tau los. Tus nqi ntawm cov khaubncaws sab nraud povtseg hauv 2022 yuav poob qis. Cov neeg muab khoom siv hauv Suav teb av loj thiab Taiwan pom tias kev sib pauv nyiaj hauv zos ntawm US duas depreciation yuav tsis tsuas yog ua rau cov khoom lag luam - ntsig txog teeb meem, thiab tseem yuav txo lawv cov nyiaj tau los. Terminal cov neeg siv khoom nrog tus nqi loj heev tiv thaiv yuav dhau lub siab ntawm cov neeg muag khoom thiab tau txais cov khoom siv raw ntawm tus nqi qis.

Thaum kawg, Dr. Jiang tau xaus lus tias tom qab kev txhim kho muaj zog ntawm 2021, 2022 yog lub xyoo zoo heev, thiab kev lag luam tau ntsib ntau yam teeb meem. Nws tau teev qee txoj hauv kev los tswj cov txheeb ze kev ruaj ntseg ntawm kev tswj hwm kev lag luam thiab siv zog nrhiav cov kev daws teeb meem zoo tshaj plaws nyob rau tib lub sijhawm los teb cov teeb meem kev lag luam.