PCB Sector: Tus nqi poob qis, kev ua haujlwm tau txais

Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022, tag nrho cov lag luam kev ua tau zoo ntawm PCB kev lag luam tuam txhab uas muag yog txhim kho, thiab cov kev loj hlob ntawm kev ua tau zoo yog feem ntau 20 feem pua ​​-30 feem pua.

Xyoo 2021, cuam tshuam los ntawm tus nqi nce ntawm cov khoom siv raw, cov tuam txhab hauv PCB kev lag luam feem ntau ntsib kev poob qis hauv kev loj hlob lossis kev poob qis hauv kev ua haujlwm. Txawm li cas los xij, txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, nrog kev poob qis hauv cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob xws li tooj liab, resin, thiab iav fiber ntau, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev lag luam PCB tau raug txhim kho, thiab kev lag luam cov txiaj ntsig tau zoo tsis tu ncua.

Tus nqi poob qis, kev ua tau zoo tuaj

Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw, hauv 2021, tag nrho kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov tuam txhab PCB hauv tsev yuav qhia txog kev poob qis, thiab qee lub tuam txhab yuav muaj kev loj hlob tsis zoo hauv kev ua haujlwm.

Hauv 2022 daim ntawv tshaj tawm ib nrab xyoo, PCB cov tuam txhab tau hais tias lub tuam txhab kev ua haujlwm tau zoo dua qub vim muaj qhov cuam tshuam xws li kev poob qis ntawm cov khoom siv raw thiab cov nqi thiab kev tswj xyuas kev siv nyiaj.

Muab faib los ntawm tus nqi qauv, hauv cov qauv nqi ntawm PCB, cov ntaub ntawv ncaj qha suav nrog ntau dua 60 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv PCB, thiab cov ntaub ntawv suav nrog tooj liab clad laminates, prepregs, tooj liab pob, khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab lwm yam khoom siv. Ntawm cov ntaub ntawv saum toj no, CCL yog ze ze rau qhov zoo thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm PCB. Nws cov thev naus laus zis ntau lawm thiab qib khoom siv ncaj qha cuam tshuam rau qhov zoo ntawm PCB, suav txog 30 feem pua ​​-70 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv PCB, thiab nws yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm PCB.

Tus nqi hloov pauv ntawm CCL feem ntau cuam tshuam los ntawm tus nqi hloov pauv ntawm cov ntaub ntawv raw xws li tooj liab ntawv ci, resin thiab iav fiber ntau daim ntaub. Cov ntaub ntawv hais saum toj no suav nrog kwv yees li 40 feem pua, 25 feem pua ​​​​thiab 20 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov nqi ntawm CCL feem, thiab tag nrho cov kev cuam tshuam ntau tshaj 80 feem pua. Ntawm lawv, cov khoom ntawm tooj liab ntawv ci nqi feem ntau suav nrog tus nqi tooj liab thiab nqi ua haujlwm.

Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev loj hlob sai ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb, txij li lub Peb Hlis 2020, qhov kev thov rau cov ntawv ci tooj liab rau cov roj teeb lithium tau loj hlob zuj zus, thiab kev ua lag luam tsis txaus, ua rau tus nqi tooj liab nce mus ntxiv. Hauv 2020, qhov chaw sib hais tus nqi ntawm LEM tooj liab tau nce los ntawm US $ 4,800 / ton thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo mus rau siab ntawm US $ 10,700 / ton hauv 2021, nrog rau qhov nce siab tshaj plaws ntawm ntau tshaj 120 feem pua. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, tus nqi ua haujlwm ntawm cov ntawv nyiaj superimposed tooj liab tau nce, tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv ci tooj liab ib zaug dhau 100, 000 yuan / ton, thiab tus nqi siab tshaj ntawm lithium roj teeb tooj liab ntawv nyiaj tau tshaj 150,000 yuan / ton. Txij li xyoo 2022, tus nqi tooj liab tau txuas ntxiv poob. Thaum kawg ntawm Lub Xya Hli, qhov chaw them nqi ntawm LEM tooj liab tau nqis mus rau US $ 7, 000/ton, ib qho poob ze li ntawm 30 feem pua ​​​​ntawm qhov pib ntawm lub xyoo. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, tus qauv tooj liab ntawv ua tus nqi tau raug txo los ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm 24, 000 yuan / ton rau 20, 000 yuan / ton, thiab roj teeb qib tooj liab ntawv ci (6 micron ) tus nqi ua haujlwm kuj tau raug txo los ntawm 48,{23}} tons rau 40,{25}} yuan / ton, ib qho txo ​​qis ntawm ze li ntawm 20 feem pua. .

Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, cov nqi ntawm resin thiab iav fiber ntau kuj tau poob qis. Txij thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj xyoo 2021, tus nqi ntawm cov resin tau pib nce, thiab tus nqi ntawm epoxy resin tau nce los ntawm 23, 000 yuan / ton mus rau siab ntawm 40, 000 yuan / ton. Thaum kawg ntawm 2021, tus nqi ntawm epoxy resin yuav yog 38,000 yuan/ton. Xyoo 2022, tus nqi ntawm epoxy resin pib maj mam poob, thiab txog rau thaum xaus ntawm Lub Xya Hli, nws tsawg dua 20,{10}} yuan / ton, nqis ze li 50 feem pua ​​​​ntawm lub xyoo pib.

Hais txog iav fiber ntau daim ntaub, thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2020, tus nqi ntawm cov xov paj hluav taws xob tau tshaj li ntawm 10,000 yuan / tuj cim thiab txuas ntxiv mus, nce mus txog qhov siab ntawm 16,000 yuan / ton thaum Lub Rau Hli 2021 thiab txuas ntxiv mus txog lub Cuaj Hli. Txij li thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2021, tus nqi ntawm cov xov paj hluav taws xob tau pib poob, poob qis dua 10, 000 yuan / ton txij li lub Plaub Hlis 2022, thiab nqis mus rau 6, 000 yuan / ton thaum kawg ntawm Lub Xya Hli, a poob ntawm 57.14 feem pua ​​​​los ntawm pib ntawm lub xyoo.

Debon Securities ntseeg hais tias qhov nce ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom ua rau txo qis cov txiaj ntsig, thiab cov nqi hloov pauv yuav pab rov qab tau cov txiaj ntsig. Tam sim no, hauv qab ntawm cov txiaj ntsig ntawm PCB kev lag luam tau txiav txim siab.

Kev thov rov qab los

Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev xav tau, hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, PCB cov tuam txhab feem ntau ua tiav cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev khiav hauj lwm ntau dua 10 feem pua, uas qhia tau tias qhov kev xav tau qis ntawm kev lag luam tau tuav qee qhov kev loj hlob ruaj khov.

Tsav los ntawm peb qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsav tsheb, digitalization, thiab hluav taws xob, nyob rau xyoo tas los no, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ib leeg tau nce ntxiv, thiab feem pua ​​ntawm cov nqi hauv tag nrho lub tsheb tau nce ntxiv. Ntawm lawv, qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsheb xws li hauv tsheb laij lej platforms, ADAS sensors (lub koob yees duab, millimeter-yoj radars, lidars, thiab lwm yam), ntse cockpits, hluav taws xob tshuab hluav taws xob, thiab roj teeb tswj kev lag luam tseem loj hlob sai.

Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022, lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los yuav tsum nce 29.93 feem pua ​​​​rau-xyoo. Ntawm lawv, lub tuam txhab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob cov khoom siv hluav taws xob yuav tsum nce 79.63 feem pua ​​​​ntawm ib xyoo, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv computer thiab cov khoom khaws cia, cov khoom siv sib txuas lus, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob yog 54.06 feem pua, 26. {14}} feem pua, thiab 22.65 feem pua. Piv nrog rau lwm yam khoom, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm lub tuam txhab automotive electronics qeb yog qhov pom tseeb, qhia txog kev nkag mus sai ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsheb.

Raws li Prismark qhov kev kwv yees, tus nqi tsim tawm ntawm kev lag luam tsheb hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb yuav yog US $ 240 nphom hauv 2021, thiab nws xav tias yuav ncav cuag US $ 337 nphom hauv 2026, nrog kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 7 feem pua ​​​​ntawm 2021 txog 2026.

Raws li kev txhawb nqa yooj yim hauv kev siv hluav taws xob hauv tsheb, qhov kev thov rau kev siv tsheb PCB tau nce raws li. Raws li kev txheeb cais ntawm Sinolink Securities, tsoos automotive PCBs feem ntau yog siv hauv ECUs. Raws li cov qauv, ib lub tsheb PCB noj ntawm kev lag luam, nruab nrab-ntau thiab high-end qauv nyob rau hauv ib txwm roj tsheb yog li ntawm 0.3 square meters, 0.8 square meters thiab 2 square. meters raws.

Hauv qhov sib piv, kev siv PCB thiab chav tsev tus nqi ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb tau nce ntau. Ua piv txwv Tesla Model 3, qhov kwv yees tus nqi ntawm nws lub tsheb kauj vab PCB yuav tsum ncav cuag 1490-1640 yuan, uas yog ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm tus nqi ntawm lub tsheb kauj vab piv rau cov tsoos tsheb ntawm 500-600 yuan.

Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev sib cais, Model 3's peb-hluav taws xob system feem ntau siv 6 txheej ntawm PCB boards (4-8 cov khaubncaws sab nraud povtseg ntawm lub qhov rooj, ib co nrog tuab tooj liab tsim), tag nrho cov kev noj mus txog rau 0.71 square. meters, thiab tus nqi sib thooj mus txog 640-690 yuan. Nws suav txog 43 feem pua ​​​​ntawm tag nrho cov nqi tsheb. Ntawm lawv, los ntawm kev xav ntawm PCB pawg thawj coj saib tshwj xeeb, Model 3 roj teeb pob ntxiv txog {{10}}.66 square metres ntawm PCB board noj, uas yog nce ze li ntawm 70 feem pua ​​​​piv rau cov tsheb tsoos. siv 1 square meter ntawm PCB board. Nws kwv yees tias PCB tus nqi ntawm cov roj teeb pob yuav ncav cuag 600-650 RMB. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev tswj hwm tus qauv ntawm Model 3 kuj tseem siv 6 pawg ntawm PCB boards (suav nrog 3 lub rooj tswj hwm lub ntsiab siv HDI thev naus laus zis), nrog rau kev siv tag nrho ntawm 0.28 square metres thiab tus nqi sib xws ntawm 550-600 yuan, suav nrog 550-600 yuan nyob rau hauv tus nqi ntawm tag nrho lub tsheb. 37 feem pua.

Sinolink Securities kwv yees tias los ntawm 2030, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsheb yuav suav txog ze li 50 feem pua, ua rau kev loj hlob txuas ntxiv ntawm PCB xav tau.

Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev txhim kho sai ntawm cov khoom siv sib txuas lus thiab cov khoom siv sib txuas uas sawv cev los ntawm 5G yog lwm qhov kev txhawb nqa tseem ceeb rau kev thov sab hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo.

Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev lag luam siv 5G, lub hauv paus chaw nres tsheb rau kev sib txuas lus wireless tau tsim los ntawm qhov loj. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology, xyoo 2021, tag nrho cov xov tooj ntawm cov chaw nres tsheb sib txuas lus thoob ntiaj teb yuav ncav cuag 9.96 lab, nrog rau qhov nce ntawm 650,000 thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo. Txog rau thaum xaus rau lub Rau Hli, tag nrho cov xov tooj ntawm Tuam Tshoj Mobile kev sib txuas lus hauv paus chaw nres tsheb mus txog 10.35 lab, nce nce ntawm 387,000 txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo. Ntawm lawv, tag nrho cov naj npawb ntawm 5G hauv paus chaw nres tsheb mus txog 1.854 lab, suav txog 17.9 feem pua ​​​​ntawm tag nrho cov xov tooj ntawm cov chaw nres tsheb hauv xov tooj, nce 3.6 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus piv nrog rau qhov kawg ntawm lub xyoo dhau los, ntawm 429,{{18} }G hauv paus chaw nres tsheb tau tsim tshiab txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli.

Guoyuan Securities tau taw qhia tias nrog kev cog qoob loo thiab nthuav dav ntawm 5G daim ntawv thov ecology, kev tsav tsheb ntawm tus nqi loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam kev sib txuas lus lag luam yuav maj mam tsiv los ntawm 5G wireless sab mus rau sab khoom siv network. Qhov kev thov muaj zog rau cov khoom siv PCB tau muab cov kev xav tau siab dua rau nws cov qib kev ua haujlwm thiab zoo.

BETON Electronics tau hais hauv nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm ib nrab xyoo tias qhov kev thov rau PCBs rau cov khoom siv sib txuas lus xws li cov keyboards, routers, thiab optical transmissions networks siv hauv 5G tes hauj lwm yuav nce ntxiv, thiab cov nqi tso tawm thiab cov nqi ntxiv ntawm kev sib txuas lus PCBs yuav raug nce ob npaug. Kev loj hlob, qhov kev thov rau huab infrastructure xws li cov servers thiab cov chaw zov me nyuam kuj nthuav dav, thiab kev siv PCB sib raug tau nce ntxiv.

Tsis tas li ntawd, kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob xa khoom tsis tau ua tiav zoo txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo vim muaj kev poob qis ntawm kev lag luam thiab lub hauv paus siab. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb ntawm Tianfeng Securities, xyoo 2020, cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob yuav suav txog li 15 feem pua ​​​​ntawm tag nrho PCB xav tau. Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022, kev poob qis hauv kev muag khoom hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb tau cuam tshuam qhov kev thov rau PCB cov khoom lag luam rau qee yam.

Txawm li cas los xij, txij li Lub Xya Hli, cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob xa khoom kuj tau pib tuaj tos. Thaum Lub Xya Hli 20, Tuam Tshoj Academy ntawm Cov Ntaub Ntawv thiab Kev Sib Txuas Lus Technology tau tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv xa khoom hauv lub xov tooj hauv lub Rau Hli. Thaum Lub Rau Hli 2022, kev xa xov tooj ntawm tes hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev yog kwv yees li 28.017 lab units, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 9.2 feem pua, xaus rau tsib lub hlis sib law liag ntawm kev muag khoom tsis zoo. Thaum Lub Yim Hli 16, lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb kev lag luam IDC tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv tshawb fawb ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov ntsiav tshuaj computer lag luam hauv lub quarter thib ob ntawm xyoo 2022, uas tau hais tias nyob rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm 2022, kev xa khoom ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov ntsiav tshuaj computer lag luam yog kwv yees li 7.29 lab units, ib xyoos. -on-xyoo nce ntawm 1.9 feem pua. Qhov kev loj hlob tau cim thawj "rov qab" hauv kev lag luam ntsiav tshuaj thoob ntiaj teb tom qab peb lub hlis twg ntawm kev xa khoom poob qis.